Mafekitori ari kutambura nemagetsi akawandisa anogona kubatsira kuwedzera kwehupfumi panzvimbo iyimasisitimu ezuva, uye matanho achangoitwa ekurayira kugadziriswa kwePV pazvivakwa zviripo anogonawo kusimudzira musika, sezvinotsanangurwa nemuongorori Frank Haugwitz.

Kwave nematanho akasiyana-siyana akatorwa nevakuru vakuru vekuChina kuderedza utsi hunobuda, chimwe chinhu chakakonzerwa nemaitiro akadaro ndechekuti magetsi ezuva akapararira awana kukosha kukuru, nekuti anogonesa mafekitori kushandisa, panzvimbo, simba rawo rinogadzirwa munharaunda, iro rinowanzo kuve rakachipa kupfuura simba rinopihwa negrid - kunyanya panguva yekudiwa kwakanyanya. Parizvino, avhareji yenguva yekubhadhara yehurongwa hwemabhizinesi nemaindasitiri (C&I) padenga muChina ingangoita makore mashanu kusvika matanhatu. Uyezve, kuiswa kwesimba rezuva padenga kuchabatsira kuderedza mafambiro ecarbon evagadziri uye kuvimba kwavo nesimba remarasha.

Mukupera kwaNyamavhuvhu, National Energy Administration (NEA) yeChina yakabvumidza chirongwa chitsva chekuedza chakagadzirirwa kukurudzira kuiswa kwemagetsi ezuva anoparadzirwa. Saka, pakupera kwa2023, zvivakwa zviripo zvichafanirwa kuisa magetsi.sisitimu yePV yedenga.

Pasi pemutemo, chikamu chidiki chezvivakwa chinodiwa kuti zviiswePV yezuva, nezvinodiwa zvinotevera: zvivakwa zvehurumende (zvisingasviki 50%); zvivakwa zveveruzhinji (40%); zvivakwa zvemabhizinesi (30%); uye zvivakwa zvekumaruwa (20%), mumadunhu 676, zvichadikanwa kuti zvive nesisitimu yedenga rezuvaTichifunga kuti magetsi ari pakati pe200-250 MW padunhu rega rega, huwandu hwese hunodiwa kubva muchirongwa ichi chete hunogona kunge huri pakati pe130 ne170 GW panosvika kupera kwa2023.

Maonero enguva pfupi

Pasinei nekukanganiswa kwemitemo yekudzora kabhoni kaviri uye kudzora kaviri, mumavhiki masere apfuura mitengo yepolysilicon yave ichikwira - kusvika paRMB270/kg ($41.95).

Mumwedzi mishoma yapfuura, kubva pakuva nekushomeka kwemagetsi kuenda pakushomeka kwemagetsi, kushomeka kwemagetsi epolysilicon kwakaita kuti makambani aripo neatsva azivise chinangwa chavo chekuvaka hunyanzvi hutsva hwekugadzira polysilicon kana kuwedzera kune zvivakwa zviripo. Zvichienderana nefungidziro dzichangoburwa, kana mapurojekiti ese gumi nemasere epoly ari kurongwa parizvino akaitwa, huwandu hwematani mamiriyoni matatu ekugadzirwa kwepolysilicon pagore hunogona kuwedzerwa panosvika 2025-2026.

Zvisinei, munguva pfupi iri kutevera, mitengo yepolysilicon inotarisirwa kuramba yakakwira, tichifunga nezvekuwedzera kushoma kuri kuuya online mumwedzi miviri iri kutevera, uye nekuda kwekuchinja kukuru kwekudiwa kubva muna 2021 kuenda mugore rinouya. Mumavhiki mashoma apfuura, matunhu asingaverengeki akabvumidza mapaipi emagetsi ezuva ane magigawatt maviri, akawanda acho akarongerwa kubatanidzwa kugrid panosvika Zvita gore rinouya.

Vhiki rino, panguva yemusangano wepamutemo nevatori venhau, vamiriri veNEA yeChina vakazivisa kuti, pakati paNdira naGunyana, 22 GW yesimba idzva rekugadzira solar PV rakaiswa, zvichireva kuwedzera kwe16%, gore negore. Tichifunga nezvekuvandudzwa kwazvino, Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory inofungidzira kuti muna 2021 musika unogona kukura pakati pe4% ne13%, gore negore - 50-55 GW - nokudaro uchiyambuka chiratidzo che300 GW.

Frank Haugwitz ndiye director weAsia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory.