Mafekitori anotambura nemagetsi egidhi akayerwa anogona kubatsira kutyaira boom pa-saitisolar systems, uye zvichangobva kuitika zvekuraira kudzoreredzwa kwePV pazvivakwa zviripo zvinogonawo kusimudza musika, sekutsanangura kunoita muongorori Frank Haugwitz.

Pakave nematanho akati wandei akatorwa nevakuru veChinese kuti vadzikise emission, imwe mhedzisiro yemitemo yakadai ndeyekuti yakagoverwa solar PV yakawana kukosha kwakakosha, nekuda kwekuti inoita kuti mafekitori adye, pasaiti, simba rawo rinogadzirwa munharaunda. iyo inowanzova yakachipa zvakanyanya kupfuura simba rinopihwa negridi - kunyanya panguva yemaawa ekudiwa kwepamusoro.Parizvino, avhareji yekubhadhara nguva yekutengeserana uye maindasitiri (C&I) padenga remba system muChina ingangoita makore 5-6. Uyezve, kuiswa kwedenga rezuva kuchabatsira kuderedza vanogadzira 'carbon footprints uye kuvimba kwavo nesimba remarasha.

Mukupera kwaNyamavhuvhu China's National Energy Administration (NEA) yakabvumidza chirongwa chitsva chekutyaira chakanyatsogadzirirwa kusimudzira kutumirwa kwesolar PV.Saizvozvo, pakupera kwa2023, zvivakwa zviripo zvichadikanwa kuisa apadenga PV system.

Pasi pemutemo, chikamu chidiki chezvivakwa chinozodikanwa kuisasolar PV, nezvinodiwa sezvinotevera: zvivakwa zvehurumende (zvisingasviki makumi mashanu%);zvivakwa zveveruzhinji (40%);zvekutengesa zvinhu (30%);uye zvivakwa zvekumaruwa (20%), mumatunhu 676, zvichadikanwa kuve nesolar padenga system.Tichifungidzira 200-250 MW padunhu, kudiwa kwese kunobva kuchirongwa ichi chete kunogona kunge kuri pakati pe130 ne170 GW pakupera kwa2023.

Near term view

Pasinei nekukanganisa kwekabhoni kaviri uye maviri ekutonga mitemo, mumavhiki masere apfuura mitengo yepolysilicon yanga ichikwira - kusvika RMB270/kg ($41.95).

Mumwedzi mishoma yadarika, kuchinjika kubva pakasimba kuenda kune ikozvino-ipfupi-ye-yekugovera mamiriro, iyo polysilicon supply crunch yaita kuti makambani aripo uye matsva azivise chinangwa chavo chekuvaka hunyanzvi hwekugadzira polysilicon kana kuwedzera kune zvivakwa zviripo.Zvinoenderana nefungidziro ichangoburwa, chero mapurojekiti gumi nemasere akarongwa parizvino aitwa, huwandu hwematani emamiriyoni matatu epagore ekugadzirwa kwepolysilicon anogona kuwedzerwa ne2025-2026.

Nekudaro, munguva pfupi-pfupi, mitengo yepolysilicon inotarisirwa kuramba yakakwira, kupihwa kushomeka kwekuwedzera kuri kuuya online mumwedzi mishoma inotevera, uye nekuda kwekuchinja kukuru kwekuda kubva muna 2021 kusvika gore rinouya.Mumavhiki mashoma apfuura, mapurovhinzi asingaverengeki akabvumidza mapaipi epurojekiti yesolar-digit-digit-gigawatt scale, iyo yakawanda zvikuru yakarongerwa kuti ibatanidzwe pagridi panosvika Zvita gore rinouya.

Vhiki rino, panguva yemusangano wevatori venhau, vamiriri veNEA yeChina vakazivisa kuti, pakati paNdira naGunyana, 22 GW yesimba idzva rekugadzira solar PV yakaiswa, inomiririra kuwedzera kwe16%, gore negore.Tichifunga nezvezvichangobva kuitika, iyo Asia Europe Yakachena Energy (Solar) Advisory inofungidzira kuti muna 2021 musika unogona kukura pakati pe4% ne13%, gore negore - 50-55 GW - nekudaro kuyambuka mazana matatu GW chiratidzo.

Frank Haugwitz ndiye director weAsia Europe Yakachena Energy (Solar) Advisory.